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Prediction for CME (2015-06-22T18:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-06-22T18:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8766/-1
CME Note: from AR 12371
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-24T12:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-06-24T15:00Z (-5.0h, +5.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:

CME arrival at target (date & UT time): 24.06.2015 at 14h:50min
Transit time: 41.68 h
Impact speed at target (at 1.02 AU): 814 km/s
Input parameters:

CME take-off date & UT time: 22.06.2015 at 21h:10min
? = 0.20×10-7 km-1, w = 600 km/s,
R0 = 15 rSun, v0 = 1200 km/s, ? = 30°, ?CME = 0°
Rtarget = 1.02 AU, ?target = 0°

Lead Time: 30.08 hour(s)
Difference: -2.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) on 2015-06-23T06:52Z

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